A new hurricane season forecast suggests a relatively moderate year for the Atlantic, with 11 to 16 named storms and several expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Up to five of those systems could directly affect the United States.
But in Jamaica, where storms often pass first or nearby, the question is less about how many will make landfall elsewhere and more about what happens when even one does.
The Caribbean remains central to the development and movement of Atlantic storms. Warm ocean temperatures—highlighted again in this year’s outlook—continue to create conditions for rapid intensification, sometimes just days or hours before landfall.
That risk is not theoretical.
Communities across Jamaica are still recovering from recent hurricane impacts, including the damage left behind in 2025. In places along the south coast, rebuilding continues, unevenly, shaped as much by financial limits as by engineering advice.
Preparedness, at a national level, has improved over time. Early warnings…
