Kingston, Jamaica — October 2025.
Beneath the glossy renderings of luxury towers and the clatter of new developments from Kingston to Montego Bay, an uneasy question is rising among economists, developers, and homeowners alike: Will Jamaica’s housing market hold its footing, or is it heading for a reckoning in 2026?
At first glance, the fundamentals look sound. Inflation is within the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) target range. Unemployment has fallen to record lows. The National Housing Trust (NHT) continues to extend subsidized loans to low- and middle-income earners, even expanding its limits earlier this year to offset higher construction costs. Mortgage rates remain steady, with the BOJ’s policy rate fixed at 5.75 percent since mid-2025.
Yet, dig deeper and a different story emerges — one defined not by local mismanagement, but by the tremors of global politics, energy shocks, and the kind of geopolitical chess games that make small island economies vulnerable to forces far beyond their s…
